Palin World

In Larry King's interview with the senior Bushes, Barbara B. made a snide comment about hoping that Sarah Palin stays in Alaska.  Palin, who can't seem to resist the temptation to respond to every criticism and negative comment, no matter how minor the comment or obscure the commenter, said the following on Laura Ingraham's radio show:

"I don't think the majority of Americans want to put up with the blue-bloods -- and I want to say it with all due respect because I love the Bushes -- the blue-bloods who want to pick and choose their winners instead of allowing competition."

Aside from the incredibly obvious hypocricy of the statement (She loves the Bushes--really? Even though she calls them "blue-bloods" and accuses them of anti-democratic intentions.), this seems particularly stupid to me. 

First, she turns Barbara's comment into a bigger story than it was.  This just draws more attention to criticism of Palin from within the Republican Party.  Palin's unwillingness to hold her fire has elevated just about every criticism of her and has diminished her own standing.  Getting embroiled in a public dispute with her grandchild's father--a teenager!--is hardly Presidential.  Criticising Michelle Obama's efforts to publicize the problem of obesity in children is utterly pointless: she is taking on a popular First Lady (who is not directly in the front line of politics) and a serious (and non-controversial) health issue.

Second, she risks elevating this into a real feud with the Bushes.  George was polite and diplomatic in his response to a question about Palin; perhaps the next time, he'll be less polite.  While disliked by the Palin base of the Republican Party, George and Barbara still have the respect of a meaningful portion of the middle; as a former President, Bush the elder is generally viewed favorably by many.  Attacking the ex-President and his wife won't win Palin respect outside her current base.

Third, the obvious class warfare aspect of this attack isn't likely to go down well with anyone other than her base.  In recent years, George the elder's image has been much more of genial old guy, and even to some extent "regular" guy, than privileged blue blood.

Finally, does it bother anyone (other than me) that Palin's response to an expression of distaste for her as a potential candidate is to accuse the Bushes of wanting to impose their own candidate?  Does she really believe that anyone who opposes her is somehow an autocrat?

I honestly have no idea what Palin's chances of winning the Republican nomination for President in 2012 are.  She certainly is not doing what knowledgeable observers say is traditionally necessary for a successful candidate: learning issues, building a campaign organization with experienced operatives, reaching out to key activists in the different primary states, developing a fund-raising operation and establishing relationships with the big contributors, etc.  If the traditional path to the nomination continues to be the reality, she should crash and burn early on.  However, no one really knows if the conventional wisdom is still correct; a lot has changed in the Republican Party, and Palin's approach might well be the winning one in 2012.

What is clear is that Palin has to date shown no interest in attempting to reach out beyond her base and, instead, antagonizes nearly everyone else.  This will be a disaster for her in the general election.  At some point between now and then, perhaps professional advisors will succeed in turning her around so that she starts making appeals to the mainstream, but it's not clear to me that she is, by character, capable of doing this in an effective way.  To do so, she would really need to change her personality, cease to play the victim, move away from the divisiveness of her public statements and persona, and develop some substance.  I don't think it will happen.